Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Moron Pundit Drools

Bye, guys. It's been fun.

So say the voters at Ace's primary results chat this evening. As Ace said, it was the greatest night of my fly-over-country life as he allowed my bitter, downscale* opinions on the page without moderation. My indispensable knowledge of Northwestern Indiana proved too important.

As it stands, Hillary is up by some 40,000 votes without one vote counted in Lake County. She may pull out a technical win but a margin that small won't come close to mitigating the loss of momentum caused by her shellacking in North Carolina.

She'll stay in the race and attempt to make a fight of it at the convention but if the Democratic elite can't convince her to drop out, the riots will.

In other commentary, Allah finally calls it against the glacier:
Which means she has nothing left to commend her to the supers except an electability argument unsupported by a single key metric or even circumstantial evidence that Pastorgate has done Obama grievous damage at the polls. Are they going to take the nomination from the first serious black candidate for president without any compelling data to hang their decision on? Not a chance. It’s over. Let’s move on.

Honestly, the only reason there's been any coverage of this primary as 'close' is that our cynical media needs ratings to stay high. This has been over since Super Tuesday and everyone that's honestly looked at the numbers has to agree.

Luckily, Obama stands next to no chance of winning any of the major swing states the Democrats need to compete in the general. Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan have no great love for Obama and Florida is almost certainly going for McCain. Hell, Maverick is pretty damned popular among "downscale"* voters in Michigan and has a realistic shot at taking that state as well.

I'm sure this won't be called by the time I go to bed but I'm standing by my earlier prediction. The turnout in Lake County will be just enough to hand the state to Obama by several hundred votes. Clinton will stay in the race but nobody, even her, will know why.
* - Explanation of downscale here.

Update: Well, I was wrong. Looks like Clinton hangs on to a slim 15,000 vote victory primarily because Obama only took Lake County 55/45. I'd be shocked if both candidates aren't sending their best people to figure out why a dominantly black county in Chicago's media market gave Obama less support than Marion county and the suburbs of Indianapolis.

No wonder they waited so long to release their totals. They were probably wondering where all the extra Obama votes were.

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